【Dear Utol (2025): Chick! Episode 47】

The Dear Utol (2025): Chick! Episode 47Arctic blast is so severe in Canada that only those above the age of 24 have ever experienced something of this magnitude during the period between Christmas and New Years. Air temperatures from Nunavut to Ontario have plunged well below zero Fahrenheit, with wind chills colder than minus-40 degrees Fahrenheit.

The cold is so dangerous that it's caused authorities in Canada, a winter-hardened country with a significant presence in the Arctic, to cancel outdoor ice skating for fear of frostbite. Residents of some of the coldest areas in Alberta and Saskatchewan have reported cracking glass windows due to the bitterly cold air temperatures.

In the U.S., the only warm spots are in the Southwest and southern Florida. In the Great Lakes region and Northeast, the Arctic air blowing across comparatively mild bodies of water gave rise to serene scenes of sea smoke dancing about the surface on Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

SEE ALSO: 2017 is about to be one of the hottest years of all time

Temperatures in upstate New York on Thursday morning plunged to minus-39 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the National Weather Service. On the summit of Mt. Washington, New Hampshire, where a weather observatory is staffed year-round, the wind chill was a staggering minus-88 degrees Fahrenheit.

Cities such as Chicago, Detroit, New York, and Boston are seeing high temperatures in the low teens to single digits on Thursday, and computer model projections show several reinforcing shots of cold air set to move in through at least Jan. 10.

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While many all-time cold temperature records are unlikely to fall, daily temperature milestones are being set since this is such a severe cold wave happening relatively early in the winter season. Several locations in the Northeast, including Boston, are likely to set a new daily record for the coldest high temperature on Thursday, for example.

The cold is perhaps best considered from a national perspective. On Thursday, 43 percent of the lower 48 states are expected to see daily high temperatures remain below 32 degrees Fahrenheit.

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A startling 13 percent of the country is forecast to see daily high temperatures stay stuck below 10 degrees, with 3 percent of the nation seeing high temperatures of below zero Fahrenheit. On Friday morning, the average low temperature across the country is forecast to be just 19.3 degrees Fahrenheit, based on National Weather Service projections.

In some places, one has to go back as far as 100 years to find a cold outbreak this severe and long-lasting. For example, in Boston, if the temperature fails to rise above 32 degrees Fahrenheit for six days in a row, it would be the longest such streak in a century.

In other words, the last week of 2017 is going to be one of Boston's coldest weeks in recorded history.

It's probably fitting that 2017, which is widely regarded as a terrible year, is going out on such a miserable note.

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Blame the Omega Block, Hudson Bay gyre, and bad luck

As you're out trying to jump start your car in the morning, or enduring a bone-chilling walk to the subway, you can direct your cursing toward the sky high above the North Pacific Ocean. It is there that this weather pattern was first triggered, but there were many accomplices in this cold weather crime.

A massive northward bulge in the jet stream, also known as a ridge, has set up across Alaska, bringing the state record warmth for this time of year. Temperatures have been above freezing in Fairbanks, where they're typically near or below 0 degrees Fahrenheit at this time of year, so we're talking some seriously anomalous mild air here.

Alaska and much of the Arctic have been milder than average for this time of year, while Canada and the U.S. are experiencing near-record to record cold.

In fact, North America is currently experiencing the most unusually cold air of any region on Earth right now.

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On the east, or downwind, side of this ridge, the jet stream is plunging southward in what is known as a dip or trough in the upper air flow. This is allowing frigid air from a large gyre spinning around Hudson Bay, Canada, to steer cold air toward the U.S. This circulation pattern is distinct from the stratospheric polar vortex, which has actually been displaced across northern Asia.

The jet stream configuration overall, including developments to the east of North America, resemble the Greek letter omega, and is known to meteorologists as an Omega block. Such blocks can take a long time to break down, as they act like giant detour signs in the atmosphere, halting the progress of weather systems and rerouting traffic.

At the surface, a powerful Arctic high pressure center is forecast to build southward across the eastern Rockies for New Year's Eve, causing a brisk northwesterly air flow to continue pumping cold air from Canada into the U.S. this week and into next week as well.

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In fact, the period between New Year's Eve and the first few days of 2018 may be the peak of this cold outbreak for the Midwest and Northeast. Parts of the Midwest, such as Minneapolis and Chicago, may get stuck below zero degrees Fahrenheit for the high temperature over the weekend and into Jan. 1. That next round of ultra cold will reach the Northeast a day or two later.

New Year's Eve itself could be one of the coldest in history in New York City, rivaling Dec. 31, 1962, when the temperature at the time of the ball drop was just 1 degree Fahrenheit.

This frigid, west-northwesterly air flow has cranked up the lake effect snow machine in the Midwest and Northeast, including the epic snowstorm in Erie, Pennsylvania, but no major large-scale snowstorms are in sight along the East Coast, as there has been in previous cold weather patterns.

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This cold outbreak is going to be remembered for its severity, but mainly for its duration. The fact that no end is in sight for the Midwest and East Coast through Jan. 9 is noteworthy. Some model runs have shown that the most brutal cold wave won't arrive in the U.S. until around Jan. 5, meaning the current cold is but a prelude to the big show.

Shiver.

What happens during the rest of the winter will depend on the evolution of the polar vortex. If it weakens, it will allow more cold air to spill out of the Far North into the midlatitudes. If it strengthens, though, like a figure skater pulling their arms inward, toward their body, it would keep the coldest air locked in across the Arctic, allowing large swaths of Canada and the U.S. to thaw out.

Judah Cohen, a director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER), a Verisk business, and an expert on the polar vortex, says he foresees some strengthening of the upper level vortex occurring during the next couple of weeks, but that it may not last long.

"The current cold air outbreak is pretty intense and maybe even more impressive is its durability," he said in an email. "So, a moderation seems inevitable regardless of the behavior of the polar vortex. So far, I don’t see a clear sign of the strong polar vortex coupling all the way to the surface, but if it did, then we could experience an extended period of mild weather in the Eastern U.S."

For now, though, keep the long underwear, gloves, and heavy duty jackets handy. And maybe start planning that Caribbean vacation you had put off during hurricane season.

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